Silver Lining to Financial Bailout Plan

I have been following the news on the bailout plan for the mess that the US markets finds itself in.  There are the free market thinkers who absolutely abhor the plan.  There are the liberals who think government intervention and throwing out laissez-faire thinking is the need of the hour.  Then there are the voters who seem to dislike the plan tremendously.

But really, what are the choices?  Peter L. Bernstein writes about this in an article quite clearly.  The confidence in the markets are low.  The damage has already been done and further consequences need to be managed.  Not doing so is really not an option.  If it seems that the Democrats are getting their way, it’s just how it has to be right now.

Stepping beyond the arguments of whether the step should be taken or not (and not asking what else is lurking right around the corner), I wonder if there is a silver lining to this chaos?  I am no economist and don’t pretend to be one, but common sense says it isn’t exactly outside the realm of possibility.  It depends on the bailout agreement.  If the government is going to gain equity in the companies it assists, which was a key requirement to reach a deal, and if the “investment” (which no ones seems to be calling it that, why is it just a bailout?) turns positive over the next two or three years (or longer), there could be potentially be a large reward for taxpayers.

The scenario that I am thinking about involves the government making a financially sound investment similar to the one Buffett made with Goldman Sachs (can the man still continue to surprise, what a shrewd investor!).  If that is achieved, and the rest of the factors fall into play (large enough equity received and a turnaround in the assets), we may see a major windfall from a lousy situation.  Could that money be used to pay down the national debt?!  Wouldn’t that be some turn of events.

Women Need to Share Less

Women in Indian culture (and most cultures) share a lot of information.  Social upbringing, perhaps more so than biological wiring (I don’t know the science behind this), has taught them to do so.  Parents teach girls to tell them what happened in school to know what is going on and as a way to protect their daughters from harm.  This emphasis doesn’t exist for boys.  Women share information as teenage girls.  They continue to do so after marriage and into old age.  As they like to say it, “I’m just passing information”.  It’s interwoven not just into their beings but into the whole culture.

In Indian culture, negativism travels faster than an apple falling from a tree.  Combine this with the sharing of information, it’s ripe for problem-making.  Why don’t women stop to think how much damage they cause by this?  Gossip isn’t just gossip.  Passing information isn’t just that either.  It’s causing varying degrees of real consequences for people.  Sticking with their gender or determining friendliness by how you’re related is understandable on one hand (it’s just how our culture is) and absurd at another (why should someone be treated badly just because he’s your brother-in-law?).  But at what cost to the other person (and hardly any to them)?

I think Indian women seriously need to think about what they say.  They need to learn to keep some things to themselves.  They need to learn to be more discerning.  Sharing information to protect a friend is understandable.  But they need to have better judgement when they start crossing the line.

Observations: Obama and McCain as People

These are a few observations from the first presidential debate – but not on their policies.  I wanted to get a sense of these two candidates as people.  Their views are most important, of course, which I have a general sense of.  (Admittedly, I don’t know enough details.)  But what about them as men?

I missed about half an hour where I believe they talked about the economic situation.  It’s too bad too, I really wanted to hear that part of the debate.

My observations:

a) McCain is much more political and doesn’t give up on his point.  Even after a direct rebuttal from Obama, McCain’s next responses reinforce his original point.  I suppose this is what a savvy and experienced politician does believing it brings better results.  It left a bad taste in my mouth.  Even if McCain was right, I got the view of both sides and ended up thinking McCain was making a fool of himself.  This is politics and at stake is the presidency.  Part of me understands it’s no holds barred.  In the end, the other part of me gave points to Obama.

b) Obama seems to grasp subtle differences while McCain seems to continually push forward mischaracterizations.  The Straight Talk Express has fallen off the tracks and is relying on posturing.  Again, yes, this is politics and to be expected.  Obama has made incorrect statements as well but they appear to be less intentional.  Since my post is about the two as people, kudos to Obama for making his point and not falsifying facts to do so.  Kudos to him also for showing he can discern complexity.  I’m sure John does too, he’s been in politics for years and is probably an expert, but he didn’t come across it that way.

c) Did you see Obama giving credit to McCain in some of his policies?  To paraphrase him, Obama actually used the words, “I give Senator McCain credit on ….”.  I didn’t hear McCain say anything like that.  His campaigning was only negative.  To me, this is a sign of a person’s decency.  (It’s also a sign of his willingness to reach agreement with and credit someone even if they’re from the other party and an opponent in the race.  These are good qualities to have if a president is going to bring change and accomplish things in a bipartisan way.)

d) Did you notice that Barack went up to greet John after the debate was over?  It was clear who was walking up to whom.  I liked that.  These two had just fiercely debated each other, both believing in their positions strongly.  Yet, Barack did the classy thing after this head-to-head argument and came out ahead in my book.

e) Did you notice Barack say “good job” to both John and the moderator, Jim Lehrer, of PBS (who I also like by the way) at the conclusion of the debate?  John didn’t say anything at all.  Was he so dumbfounded from a beating in the debate that he was still clearing the cobwebs?  Or is a career politican unable to say something that credits an opponent?  Or, worse yet, is that just how John is?

f) Did you see Barack and Michelle Obama walk all the way across stage to shake hands with John and Cindy McCain?  This may have been political on Obama’s part but having seen and heard what they have said over the past few months I am giving them the benefit of the doubt.  That’s class!

g) It was also very interesting that McCain would not look at Obama during the course of the debate.  I’m sure people noticed that!  Non-verbal cues tell you there is animosity and possibly fear in McCain.  I have to admit, that is a bit surprising and a bit uncomforting.  Animosity?  I can understand if he has that.  Political campaigns tend to cause and leave angry feelings as a byproduct.  But what would the reason be for fear?  Whatever the reasons, it was clear McCain was withdrawing instead of extroverting.

h) Throughout the debate, Obama was calling his opponent by his first name.  There were many times when Barack addressed John directly.  This left a feeling of warmth.  There was intense competition and disagreement but it left me with a sense that Obama can agree to disagree without making it personal.  He can attack a person’s views without attacking the person.  News media have framed this as detachment with a negative implication against Obama.  Being Bill Clinton and having the ability to draw people in is awesome, of course, but the supposed detachment played out fine as far as I could see.  We didn’t hear McCain calling Obama by anything but his official title of senator.

i) Obama was addressing McCain throughout the debate.  John was addressing the moderator and the audience.  When he was rebutting Obama, it was still to a third party rather than to a debate opponent.  I’m not sure it tells me much of John but it is still something I noticed.

I am clear on who’s views are more in snyc with mine.  I’m a (centrist) Democrat.  There’s not much competition in that case, it’s a no brainer.  Before this debate, I was wondering who I liked more as a person?  The points I highlighted above are the soft stuff that answers that question.  In fact, as much as I disagree with President Bush’s views and policies, what I have seen of him as a person I like. 

A year or so ago, I liked John’s reputation of being a straight talker, although I think he can be more straight-forward than I’d prefer at times (when he puts his politician hat on).  I’m a straight talker too (although I’m no politician!).  I think Barack is also a straight talker and he’s got a good way of putting things.  Hmm, whom do I want to vote for? 

Moving Back to India

I was recently asked why people move back to India.  A person I recently became friends with asked me this question.  I gave her my answer – that, in my opinion, it really depends on what age the person left India.

This question also made me rethink about my own reasons for coming to India.  I moved back last August after thinking about doing it (seriously doing it) since the beginning of the millenium and once-in-a-blue-moon thinking since my father passed away in the early 1990s.  In other words, I had been considering it for a long time.  Now I can’t believe it’s been over a year that I’ve been permanently here.

Here were my reasons for moving back to India:

a) I felt a real void.  There was a desire to understand my roots and my culture.  The strength of that desire came from painful experiences of not understanding older family members and the damage that caused in my life.  This was mostly a specific aunt but it mushroomed into other folks as well.  Why do they think the way they do?  Why are they act towards me in not-so-great ways like they do?  Why do I think differently than them?  Am I wrong about the way I think and feel about what is “right”?

b) I hadn’t lived with my family in 15 years.  My brother and I lived together for a few years but in this case I am really talking about parents, i.e., my mom.  There was a void there as well, a desire to know my own family better.  It had become clear that we didn’t know each other as well as many other families.

c) I was getting tired of my “American” friends who had “American” style of thinking.  I couldn’t fit in with them completely.  I was too Indian for them or, to put it in another way, they were too “American” for me.  This was true not in our values as much in our day-to-day way of handling things, not in our high-level vision of life but in our tactical vision of life.  It also had to do with finding real friendships, people to connect with.  I wasn’t finding it.

d) After being very determined and purposeful with goals, life happened.  The result was over a decade of chaos.  It was also a result of giving up my purpose.  My cheese had been moved.  My determination had been shot very specifically by family members reminding me why I was working so hard, that I should stop working to build a career.  Hearing this was bad timing because my self-resolve and self-esteem had died due to the years of criticism I was receiving.  I just bought into it and gave up at least partially.

e) I got some of my determination, some of myself, back but not enough.  What I did get back led me to my final reason – the opportunities available in India seemed immense.  If other things in my life in the US were not making me feel good about myself and I wasn’t fitting in there, then why not try to move to India now that the economic reasons were less of a constraint?

Has my return been positive?  Largely I think it’s been good.  I have filled and continue to fill the void of understanding my culture, family and myself.  I have also seen the bad side of India.  Behavioral differences (again, the tactical way of dealing with life, not the high-level) is very different than what I am used to.  There are things I can do to improve a few areas of my life but there are other things that just are the way they are and I have to learn to deal with them better.

I have also realized, and mostly accepted, that I am just too damn screwed up – I don’t fit in either country completely!  It’s sad yet funny at the same time.  Not to jump into another post but this is not just identity crisis, it’s more than that.  It has to do with me as a person – my values, my beliefs, my personality, my attitudes, my looks, the way I’m perceived, and all kinds of other things.  It has been a humble realization that someone else with the same exact external influences and affects as me may have had very different experiences.

Random Latest Happenings & Thoughts

Random happenings:

• My sleep cycle is a bit screwed up these days.  I am trying to rectify this problem but it’s one of those chronic issues that just keeps reverting its ugly head.  The difference between today and say 7 or 8 years ago (hell, it’s more like from the mid-90s to the mid-00’s), is that I actually have control over some of it.  Everything’s not a complete blur.  The strange nightmares are still there that wake me up with fear every once in a while though.  Fear of what?  Nothing too serious but that’s for another post at another time!
• Our apartment complex’s electricity fluctuations have been much more pronounced recently.  While I lay in bed, within a span of 10 minutes, the fan’s speed goes to slow to fast and then back to slow and then back to fast.  It’s quite funny.  Thank God it’s not so hot right now where the window between fast-to-slow requires the turning on of the AC (and subsequent turning off).
• I like the recent weather in New Delhi, it’s a very nice time of the year.

Random thoughts on current events:

• How bad can it get in the US financial system?  I have been enthralled by the news of the last month, to the point where I considered adding another dimension to this blog by commenting on current events (which I now have).  What isn’t happening today!!?
• Palin comes into the picture.  I can understand how she attracts such large crowds.  But come on, are you kidding me?  Troopergate and other incidents from her very limited political life show that she and McCain are going to be just like GW and Cheney – secrective with a disregard for law.  If someone thinks living in Alaska gives them foreign policy experience because of its proximity to Russia, then they are either delusional or they exaggerate too much.
• When people could have gone after Palin for her daughter getting pregnant, Obama does the decent thing and says that families are off limits.  He’s said this before, of course, but saying it then helped Palin.
• The manipulations from the McCain camp are really something.  Where’s the honor in all that, John?  Obama has done a few of them too, but perhaps not as bad as McCain.
• Obama and McCain are fighting each other and they’re copying each other.  Seriously, has anyone else noticed this?  The similarities are more than the usual presidential politics gimmicking – they’re crossing and blurring the lines in many cases between the Democratic and Republican ideologies.  Each is saying the same thing the other is saying, even if their core party affiliation should not “allow” for this.
• The Fed buys Freddie and Fannie!  The blank checks from the government have now become official and formal.  Enough said.
• Economic policy leaders are huddling with industry executives to keep the financial system from screeching to a halt and bringing all of us very close to the era of the 1930s!
• Merrill Lynch sells itself (by the way, anyone notice how Bank of America is quietly gobbling up large, well-known names during the past year or so?).  Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy protection.  AIG is given a $85 billion lifeline and sells 80% of itself to the government.
• Central banks worldwide are pushing liquidity into global financial markets in a very cooperative and coordinated manner.  How often has that happened before?
• Wall Street as we knew it with the independent investment banks is gone.  Money market funds are having problems!  Seriously, money market funds!  The Treasury bill returns went negative, that’s how much demand there was for it.  People were willing to invest in it at a slight loss or a zero gain.  Retirees are losing money (which really sucks)!
• The Fed wants $700 billion to stave off more damage to the economy, a plan that I agree with as long as they add some of the protections they’re discussing now.  This includes the limitations of golden parachutes and Congressional oversight of the Treasury Secretary.  I’m one for regulations at the appropriate levels, not too much, not too little.  This situation is far from a normal chaos, it’s chaos squared with it’s potential for really wreaking the world’s economy.  The active steps being taken are better than the results of potential no-action.
• Aren’t we glad that Bernanke, the wizard on the Great Depression, is heading the Fed right now?  Aren’t we also glad that a Goldman Sachs man, Secretary Paulson, is the Treasury head?  What a one-two punch!
• Bombings in New Delhi are happening in a continuation of the idiocy of the last few months (Bangalore, Jaipur, etc).
• Gordon Brown may lose his premiership before long.  Is there any way Tony Blair can come back?
• Tina Fey, who I’ve always liked, won many Emmys!  How can one write, direct (or is it produce?) and act and yet have a life?  Oh, and that clip on SNL, that was just too damn funny!
• And, the Wall Street Journal is really an amazing paper as I have rediscovered.  While trying to understand what these financial instruments were that everyone kept talking about (credit default swaps and all), I ended up reading WSJ a few times.  The writers are excellent.  Their articles are a good balance between details and laymen’s terminology.  They give you enough understanding without overwhelming you with hard to understand jargon.